PREDICTIONS
I was walking past the TAB recently and remembered that I had been a busy little punter on sports betting a few years ago.
A friend of mine had a friend who had a friend that did the numbers on TAB’s success rate with Rugby Union and league games. He decided that if the home team was the favourite, and the TAB was paying less than $1.40 for the win, then that team won 75 % of the time. Pretty good predictions I thought. I spent a whole season with a spreadsheet checking the results, and placing phantom bets to see what the out come would be. And what do you know, he was right! But since the home team often paid $1.10 for the win, you ended up losing more than you won. So you couldn’t get ahead.
So then I tried backing super favourites (those paying less than $1.10 for the win, and rolling six games together one after another). So each win was rolled onto the next game. You had to get all six right to collect. I was doing well, until Italy had their first ever Six Nation win, by defeating Scotland. Damn Italians.
If predicting rugby games isn’t easy, how hard are natural disasters to predict? They are often referred to as ‘An Act of God’. It’s our way of saying; no one could have foreseen or prevented this from happening. So earthquakes and tsunamis are Acts of God; not forewarned predictable events. If they did become predictable, where will the accountability lie when natural disasters aren’t predicted correctly?
Is the moon in some way responsible for earthquakes, or for that matter -- the weather? The reputable Geothermalogists (made-up word) who refer to their books and research say that it is not. A number of moon watchers who refer to their charts and research say that the moon most likely affects the weather.
I remember some old predictions. In the 1970’s scientists were telling us that the world was getting colder and colder. We would all die in an ice age. Thank goodness for all those fossil fuels we’ve burnt since, they saved us. Now the world is getting warmer and we will drown when the polar caps melt. Oh well.
Let’s not forget economics. It is a science in and of its own. Large salaries are paid to their university qualified industry specialists to predict the future as it relates to the economy. And how often are they right? Not so much. Economic downturns are not predicted, nor are bull markets. Maybe the moon is involved in economics as well…has anyone looked into that?
Actually, yes. A 2009 study in England found a correlation between investment returns and a full moon.
Predictions are a tricky prospect, yet we are drawn to them for pretty much everything. Perhaps it’s an attempt to make sense of the world; a human need to know what is going to happen. And even when there is abject failure on behalf of the predictors, we keep going back for more.
Anyway, my last big bet I made was on the 6th October 2007. All Blacks vs. France.
“$20 to win”. I said as I handed over my money. My mate behind me was much more bullish.
“Dude, they will crush France. Anyhow, France never wins on a full moon.”
“You so sure?”
“Duh, yeah, France lost to Argentina and the ref is English. They hate the French. He won’t do them any favours”.
“Make it a fifty then”. As I handed over what was left in my wallet.